Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the closing price of Brent crude oil futures reaches $120 per barrel or higher at any point on or before March 31, 2026 (UTC). Resolution will be based on the official daily settlement price from ICE Brent futures contracts traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London, sourced from Investing.com Brent Oil Futures, ICE official data, or equivalent reliable sources like Bloomberg or the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The market resolves NO if the price remains below $120 through the end of March 31, 2026. In case of data disputes, community consensus or an external oracle (e.g., UMA) may be used.

Background
As of March 1, 2026, Brent crude is trading at approximately $79.41 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. UBS analysts have indicated that Brent spot prices could exceed $120 per barrel in extreme scenarios involving major supply disruptions. However, the EIA forecasts an average of $58 per barrel for 2026, while Reuters polls suggest $63.85 per barrel. The 52-week price range has been from $58.40 to $79.40.

Considerations

Achieving $120 would likely require significant geopolitical escalation, such as prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz (a key chokepoint for ~20% of global oil trade). On the other hand, analysts expect limited impacts from current conflicts, with targeted military actions avoiding Iran's oil infrastructure. Factors like high global oil inventories, strong production growth, elevated inflation, and upcoming U.S. midterm elections could cap price spikes. Conversely, extended retaliações or broader regional instability (e.g., involving proxies like Hezbollah) might push prices higher.