By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
10
Ṁ1.0kṀ1k
2100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
36%
By end of 2050
16%
By end of 2030
3%
By end of 2025
2%
By end of 2024
1.6%
By end of July 2024
Each option resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory resolves to either YES or NO by that date. Otherwise it resolves NO (if it didn't resolve before that date, or if it resolved to any value other than YES or NO).
(In case the resolution status changes, then this question resolves based on the final resolution date)
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]
Covid a lab leak?
52% chance
If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?
25% chance
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
32% chance
Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?
50% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
34% chance
Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
13% chance
Which month will this market resolve in? (read description)
If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?
18% chance