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Manifold AI Forecasts
Live prediction market odds on all things AI
Countdown to AGIThe market expects we achieve artificial general intelligence by 2030... What do you think?
years
months
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seconds
Trending
A new company - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and found a company before officially joining any existing company.
31%
Anthropic
18%
Remains Unemployed - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and will not officially join any other company after that.
18%
It will involve godagreements
14%
A former OAI executive or board member is working on the project with him
35%
It's leaked before he announces it officially (when he announces, we already know what it is)
62%
Before June 2024
8%
Before July 2024
20%
Before August 2024
23%
Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.
40%
Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.
17%
Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful
19%
achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)
93%
released in 2024
88%
is released within 1 week of being announced
82%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
72%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
58%
A second major version of the model has been released
67%

Ilya Leaves OpenAI

The Verge
OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever is officially leaving
Ilya Sutskever, the OpenAI co-founder and chief scientist who reportedly led the infamous failed coup against Sam Altman, is unsurprisingly leaving the company.
14%
It will involve godagreements
35%
A former OAI executive or board member is working on the project with him
62%
It's leaked before he announces it officially (when he announces, we already know what it is)
15%
It will involve Anthropic
31%
A new company - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and found a company before officially joining any existing company.
18%
Anthropic
18%
Remains Unemployed - Ilya will officially leave Open AI before 2025, and will not officially join any other company after that.
13%
Other
20%
Ilya does not appear on a podcast in 2024
17%
Other
13%
Dwarkesh
10%
Future of Life Institute Podcast
20%
Before May 21 2024
30%
Before June 1 2024
41%
Before Jun 15 2024
52%
Before July 1 2024
Analytics India Magazine
Where is Ilya?
Ever since Sam Altman's dramatic exit and comeback as a board member, we've all been wondering where Ilya Sutskever is and what the chief scientist at OpenAI’s been upto? 

OpenAI - GPT-4o

CNN
OpenAI unveils newest AI model, GPT-4o | CNN Business
OpenAI on Monday announced its latest artificial intelligence large language model that it says will be easier and more intuitive to use.
8%
Before June 2024
20%
Before July 2024
23%
Before August 2024
32%
Before September 2024
Tom's Guide
OpenAI confirms ChatGPT event for today — 'feels like magic'
The next OpenAI event has been confirmed, but it looks like the search engine isn't on the agenda.
Ars Technica
Mysterious “gpt2-chatbot” AI model appears suddenly, confuses experts
Mystery LLM highlights transparency issues in AI testing.
40%
Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.
17%
Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.
19%
Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful
35%
Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.
Business Insider
OpenAI is expected to release a 'materially better' GPT-5 for its chatbot mid-year, sources say
The model that underlies the popular ChatGPT generative AI tool is said to be soon getting an upgrade.
93%
achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)
88%
released in 2024
82%
is released within 1 week of being announced
59%
support long-term memory
36%
2024 or 2025
18%
2026 or 2027
18%
2028 or 2029
28%
Not before 2030
Business Insider
Microsoft and OpenAI plan to build a $100 billion supercomputer to power artificial intelligence: report
Microsoft and OpenAI are planning an unprecedented supercomputer that would use millions of specialized server chips, The Information reported.
YouTube
Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, Sora, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies. Please support this podcast by che...
33%
It won't release during 2024
50%
It will release between May and October 2024
12%
It will release in November 2024
9%
It will release in December 2024
0.1%
February 2024
1.9%
March 2024
3%
April 2024
6%
May 2024
TechCrunch
Diffusion transformers are the key behind OpenAI's Sora -- and they're set to upend GenAI | TechCrunch
At the heart of Sora and Stable Diffusion 3.0 is a type of AI model architecture called the diffusion transformer.
72%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
58%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
67%
A second major version of the model has been released
15%
A third major version of the model has been released
4%
Ilya Sutskever
90%
Adam D’Angelo
3%
Tasha McCauley
1.7%
Helen Toner
Elon Musk sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, claiming "stark betrayal" of the AI company's mission
Lawsuit accuses OpenAI of abandoning its mission to benefit humanity in favor of pursuing its commercial interests.
TechCrunch
Andrej Karpathy is leaving OpenAI again — but he says there was no drama | TechCrunch
Andrej Karpathy, a widely respected research scientist, has quit OpenAI for the second time to focus on personal projects.
Sama says "build for GPT-5 and AGI Now; GPT-5 in 2024, AGI in 2025" | Hacker News
Ars Technica
Mysterious “gpt2-chatbot” AI model appears suddenly, confuses experts
Mystery LLM highlights transparency issues in AI testing.

AI Capabilities

YouTube
Figure Status Update - OpenAI Speech-to-Speech Reasoning

AGI Timelines

CNET
There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference
It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.
What Is Artificial Superintelligence? | IBM
Artificial superintelligence is a hypothetical software-based AI system with intellect beyond human intelligence.
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
TIME
The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying
As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic
33%
Other
27%
OpenAI
19%
DeepMind
7%
Anthropic

AI Doom

Vox
The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity
Ensuring machine learning programs are aligned could be one of the biggest existential problems of our time.
MIT Technology Review
Now we know what OpenAI’s superalignment team has been up to
The firm wants to prevent a superintelligence from going rogue. This is the first step.

GPT-5

Ars Technica
GPT-5 might arrive this summer as a “materially better” update to ChatGPT
Sources say to expect OpenAI's next major AI model mid-2024, according to a new report.
93%
achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)
88%
released in 2024
82%
is released within 1 week of being announced
59%
support long-term memory
Resolved
NO
Before April
Resolved
NO
Before May
Resolved
YES
Before June
Resolved
YES
Before July
YouTube
Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, Sora, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies. Please support this podcast by che...

In an interview posted March 18th, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says:

Lex Fridman(01:06:13) So when is GPT-5 coming out again?

Sam Altman(01:06:15) I don’t know. That’s the honest answer.

Lex Fridman(01:06:18) Oh, that’s the honest answer. Blink twice if it’s this year.

Sam Altman(01:06:30) We will release an amazing new model this year. I don’t know what we’ll call it.

TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
48%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
78%
Video modality(Input or Output)
85%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
89%
Image Modality(Output)

Sora/Hollywood

The Verge
OpenAI is pitching Sora to Hollywood.
The AI company is scheduled to meet with a number of studios, talent agencies, and media executives in Los Angeles next week to discuss partnerships, sources familiar with the matter tell Bloomberg. Getting more filmmakers familiar with Sora, OpenAI’s upcoming text-to-video generator, is a major goal of the meetings. Although Sora is still awaiting a public release later this year, Bloomberg reports that a few A-list directors and actors have already been given access.
72%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
58%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
67%
A second major version of the model has been released
15%
A third major version of the model has been released
YouTube
Sora Developers Explain AI Video Generation
In this clip, Marques talks with the team leading Sora over at OpenAI!Watch full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Srh1lut4Q2AShop the merch:https://s...
What Are AI Hallucinations? | IBM
AI hallucinations are when a large language model (LLM) perceives patterns or objects that are nonexistent, creating nonsensical or inaccurate outputs.
Cartoon Brew
New Report Confirms Worst Fears: AI Will Disrupt Countless Animation Jobs Over Next 3 Years
The startling report makes one thing clear: generative AI is here today and wreaking havoc right now.

Politics & AI

Newsweek
Donald Trump raises red flag on AI: "So scary"
Former President Donald Trump called AI maybe "the most dangerous" thing out there.
Vox
President Biden’s new plan to regulate AI
The White House spells out its vision for governing the powerful technology.

GPT-5 Capabilities

TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
48%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
78%
Video modality(Input or Output)
85%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
89%
Image Modality(Output)