This market will resolve to the set of political parties that secure at least one seat in the 2026 Russian State Duma (9th convocation) through the federal party‑list proportional representation system only. Single‑member constituency wins are not considered for this market.

The election is scheduled for September 18–20, 2026. Under Russian law, 225 of the 450 Duma seats are allocated via proportional representation, with a 5% electoral threshold. A party becomes part of the parliament if and only if it receives 5% or more of the valid votes cast in the federal party‑list vote, thereby qualifying for seat allocation.

Parties that do not reach the 5% threshold, parties that are not on the final certified ballot, or parties that win only single‑member districts (which are excluded from this market) do not count as becoming part of the parliament for resolution purposes.

Resolution sources: This market will be resolved based on the official final results published by:

• The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation (cikrf.ru)

• TASS (tass.com)

• Interfax (interfax.ru)
  

If the official results from these sources are unavailable, contradictory, or not published in a timely manner, secondary resolution sources will be BBC (bbc.com) or CNN (cnn.com) reporting the certified final party‑list results.

The market will resolve once the official final results with the list of parties that passed the 5% threshold are confirmed by the CEC and reported by at least one of the primary sources.