Will Linux pass 5% desktop PC market share by the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

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predicted NO

😭

predicted NO

@RemNi 2024 is the year of the Linux desktop

⚠AFK Creator

📢Resolved to NO : PROOF (GlobalStats statcounter)

predicted NO

@zlare Can this resolve?

The resolution of this market is going to depend entirely on whether the market creator counts Chrome OS (a Linux-based desktop operating system) as "Linux".

Chrome OS is a custom Linux distribution built using the Gentoo portage system, with various custom UI components and similar, largely Open Source with a handful of proprietary bits. I think it'd be reasonable for it to count.

bought Ṁ150 of NO

(speaking as trader, not mod)

I think "whatever comes up on google" refers to things like:

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/07/report-linux-desktops-hit-3-global-market-share-but-are-declining-in-us/
https://itsfoss.com/linux-market-share/

These all give numbers of ~ 3%. They count "ChromeOS" as separate from "Linux", so you don't add them together, ChromeOS is a separate thing regardless of what's under the hood. The question is "linux" clarified as "what comes up on google", not "linux based things" or something broader, and not a deep dive technical definition.

Is your methodology "will it be at time of market close", or "will it be at any time before market close"?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

It already has according to statcounter, the first result when I search on Google. Their desktop stats for November show 2.77% for "Linux", and 2.48% for ChromeOS (which is Linux as well).

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide

@jonmast ChromeOS shouldn’t count just because it’s Linux based. It has a very different set of users than other Linux distros.

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr I was hoping for a clarification from @zlare@zlare, it could be interpreted either way

predicted NO

Whose measurement are you using?

predicted YES

@ahalekelly Whatever comes up on google

bought Ṁ10 of YES

probably not lol