Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

In October 2025, Microsoft is set to drop support for Windows 10, aside from an optional paid subscription to keep getting security updates for the next few years. Windows 11, the replacement they'd like to move people onto, is broadly poorly-reputed. And, meanwhile, Linux seems to be picking up steam lately as an option used by nonnegligibly-many desktop-users. So. How much migration away from Windows are we expecting to see, given this state of affairs?

Market will be resolved based on the numbers at https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide, taking Windows's market share percentage for each year as the mean of its market shares each month of that year. Market runs on absolute rather than relative percentage; 'at least 5%' refers to five percentage points (e.g. a move from 70% to 65%), not to five percent of the prior market share (e.g. a move from 70% to 66.5%). Market will resolve N/A if statcounter is no longer providing the relevant statistics as of resolution-time.

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This is not, actually, the market I wanted to make about this. It would have been better to do this as a numeric market, rather than as a yes/no market. But, unfortunately, creation of numeric markets seems to have been disabled yet again; thus I'm falling back on making the yes/no version, as an inferior-but-better-than-nothing alternative.

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