Background

Donald Trump is currently 77 years old (turning 78 in June 2024). He has a documented history of heart disease, including coronary artery disease. In 2020, he experienced a severe COVID-19 infection that required hospitalization at Walter Reed Medical Center. According to actuarial analysis by Dr. Jay Olshansky, Trump has less than a 75% chance of surviving through a potential second presidential term.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Donald Trump dies from any cause (natural, accidental, or otherwise) between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024. The market will resolve as NO if Trump survives through December 31, 2024 23:59:59 EST.

Death must be confirmed by at least two major news organizations or an official death certificate. In the case of a reported death that is later proven false, the market will resolve based on the actual date of death, not the reported date.

Considerations

• Trump has not released detailed medical records, making it difficult to fully assess his current health status

• The market resolves based on actual death, not reported death in the case of incorrect reports

• Any form of death counts for resolution, not just natural causes