Can you estimate what percentage of players will get 9 wins? Even just super rough napkin math would be appreciated to give a sense of scale, if you give that I can bet more

@Tumbles The math is a bit tricky to do. But basically the event is 15 rounds. But after the first 9 only 6-3s get to continue to playing. So of those 6-3s or better who make day 2, over half will get 9 wins. But only 1/3 of players will make day 2. So maybe roughly 1/6 by my envelope math? Probably slightly more than that.

@Ajelenbogen thanks! Well @zax wanna bet on yourself? If you make a YES limit order at 20% I'll fill it

If I were going to bet on my performance (and I won't), I'd bet against myself.

@zax That's not how personal markets like this are supposed to work XD