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MANIFOLD
Is the US government the mystery oil futures seller?
5
Ṁ1kṀ1.8k
Dec 31
16%
chance

  • Update 2026-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator may resolve to N% (PARTIAL) if there is uncertainty, potentially at a very small N if evidence is lacking but not entirely absent.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

Someone is selling crude futures at scale and nobody knows who.

Traders being pushed by clients to identify the mystery seller. The leading theory: the U.S. Treasury intervening directly in oil markets to hold prices down.

Trump already released half the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Now potentially manipulating futures markets on top of it

FT

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

I assume this resolves NO by default if there is never any credible evidence that it was?

@xjp I'm open to a resolution to N% if there's uncertainty, potentially for very small N.