Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the political party of the candidate declared as the winner of the Bankipur Assembly Constituency (Bihar) by-election by the Election Commission of India (ECI).

The primary source of truth for resolution will be the official Election Commission of India Results Portal or, in its absence, major reliable Indian news outlets reporting the official ECI declaration.

The by-election is scheduled to take place on July 30, 2026, with the counting of votes and declaration of results on August 3, 2026. If the election is delayed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the official winner is declared by the ECI. If the by-election is cancelled or permanently aborted without any winner being declared, the market will resolve as N/A.

Background

The by-election for the Bankipur Assembly Constituency in Bihar was necessitated by the resignation of sitting BJP MLA Nitin Nabin, following his election to the Rajya Sabha.

Bankipur is located in Patna and has been a reliable BJP stronghold since 1995. This by-election has attracted significant attention due to several notable storylines:

• Prashant Kishor, the prominent election strategist and founder of the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), is making his direct electoral debut by contesting this seat.

• Neeraj Kumar Sinha, a youth leader, is representing the BJP after the party’s initial nominee, Abhishek Kumar, withdrew his candidature shortly after filing his nomination.

• Rekha Kumari Gupta is contesting as the candidate for the opposition RJD.