This question resolve to yes if during an event or in an official press release, facebook or one of its big subsidiaries announce working on integrating a brain machine interface to an oculus product or to another facebook owned, hardware platform for virtual reality.
The question was prompted by this articles where it says that in 2017, facebook revealed that it was working on a brain machine wearable interface.
https://roboticsbiz.com/the-history-of-brain-computer-interfaces-bcis-timeline/
Aug 21, 4:26pm:
Aug 21, 5:03pm:
Close date updated to 2022-11-13 10:48 pm
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:55 pm
Close date updated to 2022-11-14 1:00 am
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Request for comment before resolving the market.
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A video of the demo by mark zuckerberg:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaivikGoel/status/1579956627326652416
A short written recount:
https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/meta-teases-wearable-control-ar-glasses-brain/
At the end of #metaconnect2022 mark zuckerberg showed a working demo of a wearable that use a neuron signal to send inputs to an ar device. He mentions that it lets you control an ar or a vr device. ( He says he can't show us the facebook ar device in the demo for now )
The description of the market mentionned
"during an event or in an official press release, facebook or one of its big subsidiaries announce working on integrating a brain machine interface to an oculus product or to another facebook owned, hardware platform for virtual reality."
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A demo of a working prototype by the CEO of Meta during (one of ) its most important yearly communication event is as close as possible to, and in my opinion qualifies as, an official announcement.
More important it's a clear signal by Meta leadership that integrating neural imputs with XR devices is a strategic path they are working on.
They sent that signal this year, earlier, than any of us would have anticipated.
By resolving the prediction market, I am going with what I think is the spirit of the bet while staying close to the letter the bet.
But more importantly I think it provides more social utility to bettors and bystanders to resolve it, since if we go by the current odds of the market, it updates dramatically our prior beliefs regarding facebook future and its prospects as an investment.
Ps:
For an assessment of the impact, read this tweet, then the whole thread.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JTagomi/status/1579965597097820165
@yomun I don't see any way this could be interpreted as not a yes resolution to this market. but obviously, I knew this was coming and bet yes about it. can folks who knew about it and yet bet against a yes explain why they don't believe this qualifies?
@L (for how I knew this was coming: they, like, have been talking about it a lot for a while, and the company they bought, ctrl labs, already had a working demo in 2019.)
@L Thanks for the input!
I'll wait a bit before resolving it to give everyone a chance to give an opinion.
It's weird how some things are obvious if you have the right input.
The name Ctrl labs rings a bell but I didn't remember what they do nor their acquisition by facebook ?
One question though, what made you think they would do something this year and not next year at Meta Connect?
And just out of curiosity why didn't you buy more ? with your insights the odds were probably wrong from your pov.
@yomun I overweighted the market's existing belief that it would not occur. I knew they were working on it and making fast progress, and that it was a major project. what I didn't know is whether it'd be ready this year.
@yomun This is a place where I wish you could allow people to make limit orders and then open the market and have them all resolve simultaneously. Then you could reopen the market and when it moved to 99.9% instantly that would be a good signal of the consensus.
Anyway, yes seems good to me.
From my news searching, I have discovered FB layed off a bunch of people, one of whom appears to have gone on to make a potentially lethal vr interface. Writers are really running with the "die in the game, you did for real" memes.
Funny, but I dont think Meta is going to have anything BCI related to release in the next few months
@yomun not one article, I was mostly looking at general tends by time and spot checking details.
earlier attempts to find recent information stumbled on the guy fired from FB
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=facebook+brain+oculus&t=brave&df=m&ia=web
Less sensational view, with some unrelated results about Meta learning:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q="Meta"+brain+computer+interface&t=brave&df=2022-08-01..2022-11-13&ia=web
the wrist neural interface discussed at meta connect does not integrate with oculus afaict
@hamnox I just added a top level comment. With a video showing a demoy Mark Zuckerberg
@yomun https://mixed-news.com/en/meta-reveals-new-research-avatars-ar-and-brain-computer-interface/#Neural_interface
in my search for BCI Meta updates, I came across this coverage of that event. it mentioned "a neural interface" wristband reading hand gestures
@yomun I think it would be bad(ish) PR to do it now, and better later. Also, there's only 4 months left in the year, and nothing especially special about those four months.
@Duncan Well there is still Meta connect 2022 which is the most probable event for such an announcement in the next 12 months.
As to why the next 12 months are special. I would argue that Facebook is trying to create a narrative to sustain its valuation in the face of tiktok onslaught. It has settled on VR/Metaverse but the tepid reception of facebook horizons so far is endangering that strategy. What better way to relaunch the hype cycle that announce thatbwoukd potentially set its metaverse appart from the competitors and betnon the PR hit being limites to geeky circles.
PS: I edited the description of the bet with the link to an article where the mention their Brain Machine Interface effort.
@yomun I'm betting they don't want to sound like another Elon Musk weirdo, and they'll do better to show off some cool things that the average users wants to do with the current technology. I could be very wrong.
@Duncan Fair take. I think it's kind of an asymetric bet. I guess I am betting on Mark Zuckerberg being still something of a maverick. And also I think after 5 years 2017 - 2022 , even moonshot have to provide some strategic advantage. We'll see !!
@yomun personally I assume that BCIs are mostly used for medical research and disability, too niche to be worth combining with a general market lest you get an intersection instead of a union.
@hamnox I think your position was the default one at the start of the field. But then how do you explain that facebook of all companies is investing in the field ?
@Duncan The advantage of what they hinted at in their demo is that it doesn't look weird at all !