Background:
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP. For example, it rose from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017. Some experts now argue that artificial intelligence could drive faster growth, potentially allowing the economy to double every 10 years—much shorter than the usual historical timeline. This question focuses on whether AI-driven productivity gains will accelerate U.S. economic expansion enough to double nominal GDP from 2025 to 2035.
Resolution Criteria
Data Source: The annual nominal (current-dollar) GDP figures published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Baseline: Use the official BEA “Current-Dollar GDP” figure for calendar year 2025.
Target: If the BEA’s “Current-Dollar GDP” for 2035 is at least twice the 2025 figure, this resolves to “Yes.” Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”
Timing: Use the first published annual estimate covering the full year of 2035.
Fine Print
“Nominal GDP” refers exclusively to current-dollar GDP as reported by the BEA.
The question does not consider inflation-adjusted (real) GDP or alternate measures.
If the BEA changes its reporting or faces temporary data unavailability, a comparable U.S. government source may be used.
1,000