Resolves YES if the Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers data series on St. Louis Fed’s FRED, expressed as a percent change from year ago, increases from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023 – i.e. if the Q4 2023 value is larger than 5.1. Resolves NO otherwise.
Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”
Chamath Palihapitiya: “[Most contrarian belief of 2023.] I will go and pick that inflation, which people expect to fall off a cliff, doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want. (…) In general, my thought is that the pendulum is swinging very markedly away from the way from capital and towards labor. And as the labor participation rate stays low and continues to go down. And also it's compounded by an unemployment rate that may go up, right? It's going to be harder and harder to get people to do the work you need at the company you have unless you pay them more. And if that gets exaggerated, then inflation will stay where it is. It won't be as muted and it won't fall off a cliff as people want. (…) That's my big contrarian wager for this year is that we see wage inflation.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ106 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent in December 2022. Wages and salaries increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the year and increased 4.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022. (See tables A, 4, 8, and 12.)
Compensation costs for private industry workers increased 4.1 percent over the year. In December 2022, the increase was 5.1 percent. Wages and salaries increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent in December 2022. The cost of benefits increased 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023 and increased 4.8 percent in December 2022. Inflation-adjusted (constant dollar) compensation costs for private industry increased 0.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2023.Inflation-adjusted wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent for the 12 months ending December 2023. Inflation-adjusted benefit costs in the private sector increased 0.2 percent over that same period. (See tables A, 5, 9, and 12.)
This should be possible to resolve at the month’s end (https://www.bls.gov/eci/home.htm):
>The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for December 2023 is scheduled to be released on January 31, 2024 at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
Locking the bets in may be fun sometimes but I’m going to reopen and extend until then.