Resolves YES if the Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers data series on St. Louis Fed’s FRED, expressed as a percent change from year ago, increases from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023 – i.e. if the Q4 2023 value is larger than 5.1. Resolves NO otherwise.

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

Chamath Palihapitiya: “[Most contrarian belief of 2023.] I will go and pick that inflation, which people expect to fall off a cliff, doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want. (…) In general, my thought is that the pendulum is swinging very markedly away from the way from capital and towards labor. And as the labor participation rate stays low and continues to go down. And also it's compounded by an unemployment rate that may go up, right? It's going to be harder and harder to get people to do the work you need at the company you have unless you pay them more. And if that gets exaggerated, then inflation will stay where it is. It won't be as muted and it won't fall off a cliff as people want. (…) That's my big contrarian wager for this year is that we see wage inflation.