Resolves YES if Ukraine regains Sevastopol and Russia uses nuclear weapons in combat in 2023 (including dirty bombs, but not including the purposeful destruction of nuclear power plants and the like). If there’s a dispute about what gains and advances happened, and/or what constitutes combat use, and/or if Kremlin denies responsibility for a nuclear weapons attack, I’ll defer to the Western mainstream expert and political consensus using my best judgment.

Resolves N/A if Ukraine does not clearly capture Sevastopol, or if I consider the Russian responsibility for a nuclear weapons attack to be very seriously disputed.

Resolves NO otherwise – if Ukraine captures Sevastopol, but Russia isn’t suspected of using nuclear weapons in combat by the year’s end.

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

David Sacks: “[Most contrarian belief for 2023.] Like I said, this is leading up to a huge Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring and I really don't know what's gonna happen at that point. I do think that the Russians will escalate, I don't think they can afford to lose this war. They view it as existential. (…) I think the Russians confronted with a choice between a total defeat that includes losing Crimea and their naval base at Sevastopol, and seeing the Ukrainian flag flying over their base at Sevastopol, if that's a choice between, that or potentially using a tactical nuke, maybe at the mouth of the Crimean Peninsula as a firewall, I think they could choose the nuke option (…).”