Resolves YES if California total state spending (not including federal transfers), decreases by 5% or more, between Governor’s Proposed Budget for 2023–24 and either of:

• Enacted Budget for 2023–24

• Governor’s Proposed Budget for 2024–25

Resolves NO otherwise.

Data for the resolution will be sourced from the California Department of Finance’s eBudget service, as is – in nominal values.

The 5% threshold is used as a proxy for austerity; cuts in the 2008–2012 period were in the 5–10% range. The difference between 2022–23 and 2023–24 is not considered, because it was public knowledge months before the recording quoted below.

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

David Sacks: “I think California is my big political loser [prediction for 2023]. And I would say in particular the city of San Francisco. Both are going to have gigantic budget shortfalls. So you may remember that back in 2021 when we had that asset bubble, California had a surplus of 76 billion, then insane. And then 2022 happened. And now the state is looking at a $24 billion deficit. (…) And now I think it's going to be even worse in 2023 (…). They've moved their tax base to highly volatile capital gains. And with a really lousy stock market, I don't know how these guys are going to meet their budgets. So a lot of pain, a lot of austerity and pain coming. That's for sure.”