https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-820536
Israel apparently managed to kill or injure a significant number of hezbollah operatives
there are conflicting reports as to how many operatives were killed
I will resolve according to Wikipedia's estimate of number killed, they need not be confirmed (so if wikipedia says approximately 50 killed it will resolved to 10->100)
If the wikipedia page for this incident doesn't include an estimate (or if there is no wikipedia page) I will resolve to the best estimates of generally reliable sources such as the NYT, WSJ, Jerusalem Post or other sources I consider reliable. If there are conflicting numbers numbers, I'll prioritize according to the order I listed here (that is to say if the NYT and WSJ give different numbers I'll resolve acc to the NYT)
I will wait until at least new years 2025 to resolve to give some time for the fog of war to clear regardless of if numbers are published beforehand, if there is still no clear info I'll wait until new years jan 2026
If it turns out that the operation was carried out by someone other than Israel that won't affect my resolution
similarly, if some other israeli target were killed they will be included in the count (eg. PIJ Hamas IRGC)
Update: this will only include numbers from the Sept 17th attack
1,000
3.00I closed my positions. If we don't have a reliable casualty count after a month, we're probably not going to have a reliable count ever. Hezbollah has taken too many other mass casualty events in the last month to adequately determine who was the killed by pager vs airstrike.
Don't know if it's reliable, but here's a leak claiming 879 Hezbollah dead