Background: On July 7, 2024, the Mexican general election will be held which will include the Mexican presidential election. According to opinion polls, Claudia Sheinbaum—currently the mayor of Mexico City—is the frontrunner to be the MORENA candidate.

MORENA is the party of the current president, known by his initials as AMLO, who is termed out. The selection process for the MORENA candidate is based on two surveys sent to party members in July/August and September/October. AMLO has indicated that Sheinbaum is his preferred candidate.

The Economist writes in "Mexico could elect its first female president next year":

Ms Sheinbaum is not the only contender to be Morena’s candidate for the presidency. Her closest rival is Marcelo Ebrard, the foreign minister. He is “the firefighter-in-chief” for Mr López Obrador’s government, says someone close to him. His ministry leads talks with the United States on everything from migration to energy. After Mr López Obrador initially refused to condemn Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it was Mr Ebrard who reassured President Joe Biden’s administration that Mexico remained an ally. His diplomacy also ensured that Mexico received vaccines during the pandemic. Until recently, he was better known among Mexicans than Ms Sheinbaum.

However, Ms Sheinbaum enjoys a widening lead over Mr Ebrard. Opinion polls place her eight percentage points ahead of him. It helps that she is the president’s preferred candidate. For several months Morena’s activists have plastered signs declaring “Es Claudia” (“It’s Claudia”) across the country—possibly in violation of Mexico’s strict campaign laws.

Her nomination seems assured. Mr López Obrador says Morena’s candidate will be decided by two surveys this summer. But concerns abound about their fairness, such as over which company will run them and what questions the public will be asked. Many worry, including some within Morena, that the process will be akin to that under the pri, when the leader chose his successor, a process known as the dedazo, or big finger.

This market will resolve as YES if Sheinbaum is selected as the MORENA party candidate for 2024's presidential election, and NO otherwise. I will change the closing date to be whenever the results are announced, when that date is known.