Will Manifold fix the random profit spikes by the end of July?
40
228
แน€790
resolved Aug 5
Resolved
NO

It seemed for a period like the old bug where the profits seem to spike and dip at random times for no apparent reason was gone. But now it's returned with a vengeance. The spikes are rarer, but still very noticeable. Will I have any unexplainable spikes left by the end of July?

This is my profits from the last week, with the mysterious spikes, for reference.

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predicted NO

h

predicted NO

:

predicted NO

Gonna add this as a new (to me) bug, where I had a phantom profit jump on Jul 10 that reverted itself yesterday on Jul 30. It affected only the chart, while the calculated profit for leagues, etc. was not impacted:

bought แน€326 of NO

I got one after betting on this market, which is strange

bought แน€10 of NO

/StrayClimb/will-manifold-fix-the-random-profit-378c301eabab

New version for August

bought แน€60 of NO

Hadn't seen on on my thing in a while, but here is one from just now on 7/29 for the record

predicted NO

Also it looks like lately they have spent a lot of effort making the UI much worse, rather than fixing bugs

bought แน€125 of NO

I'd pay so much mana for a bot that automatically bets no on any "will manifold ___ " markets. the real probability here should probably be like 1%

bought แน€30 of NO

This looks like the sort of thing that will never be fixed

I had assumed this was just from brief jumps in market probabilities being corrected back fast.

Another profit spike (downwards)

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