Who will win Eurovision 2023?
42
542
resolved May 13
44%
Sweden
7%
France
7%
Ukraine
0.3%
Ireland
0.8%
United Kingdom
0.2%
Luxembourg
1.2%
Israel
0.9%
Norway
0.1%
Netherlands
0.9%
Italy
1.5%
Austria
4%
Spain
0.0%
Switzerland
0.1%
Denmark
0.7%
Germany
0.1%
Serbia
0.2%
Croatia
0.1%
Slovenia
1.2%
Czech Republic
0.2%
Iceland

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, United Kingdom, from May 9 to May 13. Which country will win?

Here is a list of recent winners:

2022: Ukraine

2021: Italy

2020: No contest held

2019: Netherlands

2018: Israel

2017: Portugal

Individual countries:

/xyz/will-ukraine-win-eurovision-2023

/xyz/will-sweden-win-eurovision-2023

/xyz/will-finland-win-eurovision-2023

/xyz/will-norway-win-the-eurovision

/xyz/will-spain-win-the-eurovision-in-20

/xyz/will-australia-win-eurovision-2023

/xyz/will-czech-republic-win-eurovision

/xyz/will-france-win-eurovision-2023

/xyz/will-israel-win-eurovision-2023

Other:

/xyz/will-there-be-a-stage-invasion-at-e

/xyz/will-there-be-a-security-incident-a

Resolves to the first occurance of the winning country in the answer choices. Resolves N/A if the contest is cancelled.

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What am I missing? To me, there's no way a single country can have above ~15% in such an unpredictable event with that many contestants. Maybe you can somewhat guess the people vote (still IMHO far fetched as unexpected major events related to contestants countries may easily swing it) but the jury vote seems quite intractable...

@MartinModrak no jury vote this year, only popular vote in the finals as far as I am aware. It seems reasonable to bet on popular vote.

@MartinModrak the one month out favourite won in both of the last two years, 15% seems way too low

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