🏅 Top traders

@xyz

Would @Catnee, @Daltonis, or @FlorisvanDoorn, the biggest YES shareholders, like to give a persuasive plea for their side?

@xyz I just stated that I think he's Isaac's alt back in the WvM market's comments before I got blocked and I'm just sticking with my guns here out of personal obligation tbh. I've just been buying low whenever I felt like it 💀

I haven't been observing the situation quite closely so I can't really say anything decisive apart of the very sudden lack of activity from both Isaac, Isaac2 and Benten following the closing of the WvM market (and the apparent burnout Isaac suffered as a result) which is somewhat sussy but that's pretty much it.

Others have probably a bit more insight on this than me.

Benten was highly active on this whalebait market after WvM: https://manifold.markets/fire_fighter/undisrupted-dominance-for-48-hours. This is extremely strong evidence that it's not Isaac, because after WvM Isaac had negative mana, Isaac definitely could not have invested 1 million mana into another whalebait market. That's not the only evidence I have, but it's the easiest for me to publicly point to.

@xyz Nothing that can be shared publicly and you didn't know

Possible! also benten's bio reads like isaac's writing

Weird that the probability here is so far off from /AlexbGoode/who-is-benten. I guess it's because you can't bet against options in that market, so there's no straightforward way to do arbitrage with this one.

@JosephNoonan I think it's that and also that because of the parimutuel structure, if Benten is revealed before the market closes you get very little money even if you bet right.

Whyd this fall, who is it

@Dreamingpast Because Isaac has stopped posting but Ben is still active?

@JimHays but Isaac stopped posting cuz he has negative balance. See new description of bio of benten

@Suston see @IsaacKing2

@jack imagine : A implies B, C, D.

A is primary acc. B is isaac2, C is benten, D is <another>.

Looking at B's description, it tells me its Isaac's alt. Okay but it doesn't tell me anything about C,D.

@Dreamingpast It doesn't tell you anything guaranteed but it most definitely does provide evidence.

Also, I didn't say what the implications were, I simply pointed out that Isaac specifically made a new alt because of the negative balance.

Notice someth interersting

@Dreamingpast If you mean that they are trending in opposite directions, I assume that’s because they’re both mostly invested in WvM. Is there something else I should notice?

@xyz the balance

@Dreamingpast What about it?

Related

All we need is a screenshot of Isaac's or Benten's claimed manalinks page. I doubt either of them will do that, cuz it'll just expose

Just now Been ten 's portfolio went from 192k -> 156k = a decrease of 36k

Same exact moment, isaac's portfolio jumped up 100k.

@Suston if there are 2-3 more alts/money stores then please identify them

I will close this on May 10 or a week after the WvM market closes, whichever comes later.

Last week an undisclosed party asked me for a M$90,000 loan. Isaac's market wasn't high on my radar at the time so I didn't notice that by helping someone buy NO, I was in fact helping Team YES. Whoops.

@MichaelWheatley Are you hinting that the undisclosed party is not Isaac?

@MichaelWheatley Just curious, how are loans usually done on Manifold?