Will Javier Milei be elected President of Argentina on 22 October 2023?

#Politics #World #2023 Argentina election

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resolved Nov 2

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The market will be resolved upon the official certification of the election results by the relevant Argentine regulatory authority.

The market resolves as YES if, and only if, Milei is elected in the October election without a runoff.

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10 Comments

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predicted NO

can resolve No, thanks

predicted NO

@xenochain please resolve

predicted NO

This bet finished. Why is it still open?

bought Ṁ500 of NO

WIth 83% in this is a NO - Massa v. Milei in the runoff.

sold Ṁ16 of YES

ARS (blue dollar rate) is actually strengthening so this is less likely? (but what the hell is going on with income taxes in Argentina? This isn't even an attempt at MMT at this point)

https://www.wionews.com/world/argentina-ends-income-tax-offers-relief-worth-57bn-before-presidential-elections-640908

Argentina ends income tax, offers relief worth $5.7 billion before presidential elections

Argentina is eliminating income tax for most of its formal workers ahead of the election season. The move has been taken to offer relief to people hit by rising inflation; however, experts fear it will end up further ballooning the fiscal deficit. The Latin American country is reeling under a massive 124 per cent inflation before October’s presidential elections, pushing the ruling party to roll out generous schemes.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I think Milei is going to win the elections and will be the next president for Argentina. The economy in argentina has gone down dramatically in the past 5 years, with the argentinian peso having no value practically. In 2019 for each USD you could get 60 ARS, right now, every USD gets you 350ARS, that is an increment of 480% which only shows how much has the peso devaluated. This devaluation has affected the country masively in terms of unenployment, poverty and economy. Milei wants to use USD as the oficial currency for Argentina, which would help to stop the massive inflation and normalize the economy. Latest polls show that people want to go in that direction and put him as the favourite to win.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

I should’ve clarified before buying. This question only resolves yes if he receives the plurality of votes and at least 45% without need for a runoff?