If there is sufficient interest I will open markets for other months and for international gross
Will be resolved using Box Office Mojo data
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@xander please resolve yes.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2023-07-31/?ref_=bo_hm_rd
Preliminary earnings are $366.4M vs $181.4M, so ~2.019x.
Barbie has legs!
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2023/07/31
@PC f'real, I am not going to put nearly as much stock in studio forecasts after this. I get why they were bearish, I was too, but I still expected more accuracy from the pros.
@Jonagold Studio forecasts have never been incentivized to be maximally accurate. There are better sources available.
@chilli any of them have Barbie this high? I modelled comparables and couldn't find anything
@PC No this is still higher than expectations. But it was clear that it was going to far out gross the 70 million the trades were predicting if you search google, which is why I bet so heavily on the “will it be a historic weekend” markets.
@chilli well I knew that Barbie would 2x Oppenheimer on the weekdays, but NO just needed Oppenheimer to hit $50M for the weekend, which was right in the middle of the projection
Maybe other people knew something I didn't, but I thought this market was overpriced.
2.0105355313x estimated
How has this not resolved yet? Are we waiting till the end of July because @SirCryptomind has posted several days of 2x Gross amount.
@dagnazty My guess is that it will resolve with the numbers at the end of the month. Oppenheimer could potentially catch up and the number could dip back below 2x
@MaggieDelano
Edit: There was a serious error in my analysis I posted previously (copy pasta missed zeros of the numbers in the original formula). Here is an updated analysis of why I am betting YES: https://github.com/JRPdata/wastebook/raw/main/2023-07-31-will-barbie-gross-2x-oppenheimer-do.docx
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@SirCryptomind It’s incredible just how exciting these Barbie markets are for the manifolded
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@SirCryptomind
https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-barbie-oppenheimer-haunted-mansion-1235448163/
Deadline has the next weekend projection as 72 to 35. No the numbers for Tuesday-Thursday.
Here is the math with numbers through the past Monday and the next weekend projection:
(188,122,044 + 72,000,000) / (95,127,370 + 35,000,000) = 1.99898026065
🤣 I'm selling all my NO shares until getting more data.
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