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Will Valve put the Steam Machine up for purchase before July
7
Ṁ100Ṁ63
Jun 30
35%
chance


Valve announced the new Steam Machine (a compact living-room SteamOS PC, “Steam Deck minus the screen”) in late 2025 for a 2026 release, alongside a refreshed Steam Controller and Steam Frame VR headset.

Valve’s latest statement (early March 2026, around GDC and their updated “Steam Year in Review 2025” blog) changed the wording to the firm commitment “we will be shipping all three products this year.” Communications lead Kaci Aitchison Boyle added that “nothing has actually changed” despite the ongoing RAM shortage. No pre-order dates or timelines were announced at GDC.

“Put up for purchase” means a live “Buy” or pre-order button on the Steam store or Valve website. Pre-orders explicitly count as Yes.

Resolution Criteria

Yes – Resolves Yes if Valve opens the Steam Machine for purchase or pre-order (pre-orders count) on the Steam store or Valve website at any point before July 1, 2026 (i.e., on or before June 30, 2026). The market resolves at the exact moment the listing goes live, regardless of shipping date.

No – Resolves No if the Steam Machine is not available for purchase or pre-order before July 1st, 2026.

The market will use the first verifiable public listing (Steam store page with “Buy” or “Pre-order” button, Valve press release, or official announcement).

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@traders OpenAI seem to have backed off their huge planned RAM buys that were supposed to grab 40% of the world’s supply (plus Google TurboQuant news). This might be behind the first real drops (albeit tiny) in memory prices we’ve seen in months. Might be something to consider for Valve’s Steam Machine timing before July?

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