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MANIFOLD
Will Valve put the Steam Machine up for purchase before July
23
Ṁ100Ṁ1.5k
resolved Jun 22
Resolved
YES


Valve announced the new Steam Machine (a compact living-room SteamOS PC, “Steam Deck minus the screen”) in late 2025 for a 2026 release, alongside a refreshed Steam Controller and Steam Frame VR headset.

Valve’s latest statement (early March 2026, around GDC and their updated “Steam Year in Review 2025” blog) changed the wording to the firm commitment “we will be shipping all three products this year.” Communications lead Kaci Aitchison Boyle added that “nothing has actually changed” despite the ongoing RAM shortage. No pre-order dates or timelines were announced at GDC.

“Put up for purchase” means a live “Buy” or pre-order button on the Steam store or Valve website. Pre-orders explicitly count as Yes.

Resolution Criteria

Yes – Resolves Yes if Valve opens the Steam Machine for purchase or pre-order (pre-orders count) on the Steam store or Valve website at any point before July 1, 2026 (i.e., on or before June 30, 2026). The market resolves at the exact moment the listing goes live, regardless of shipping date.

No – Resolves No if the Steam Machine is not available for purchase or pre-order before July 1st, 2026.

The market will use the first verifiable public listing (Steam store page with “Buy” or “Pre-order” button, Valve press release, or official announcement).

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@Stralor to be fair you can't actually place the pre-order yet, just get a reservation

@wasabipesto hmmm I see your point. if "join the pre-order lottery" doesnt count I'm not sure we could reasonably resolve this YES in the foreseeable future due to supply chain issues, even after the first units ship. feels like this resolution is aligned with the spirit of the market, no?

@Stralor but ofc feel free to undo it. just didnt want to leave things unreasonably in the air

@Stralor they do explicitly say June 25th is the order date, fwiw:

Join the list any time before June 25th at 10 a.m. PT. On that date, the list will be closed and randomized, and you will receive an email with your results shortly after.

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