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MANIFOLD
Who will win Manifold Plays Poker?
10
Ṁ1.3kṀ25k
resolved Jul 10
100%99.6%
Christopher Randles
0.0%
Sinclair Chen
0.1%
Simon Grayson
0.0%
A
0.0%
Fion
0.1%
Kongo Landwalker
0.1%
brubsby
0.0%
ManualBlinking

Resolves to the final winner(s) of the current Manifold Plays Poker game run by Pat Scott.

This market will close whenever the game is completed and the winner is announced publicly. If the game is canceled and will not have a winner, this market resolves N/A.

As of the time of this market creation, players are currently betting on hand 1:
/Stralor/manifold-plays-poker-hand-bets-hand

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This resolves Christopher Randles. I will bet such now that it is public knowledge.

We're at the river!

tie pays out evenly right?

@brubsby What sort of tie?

"4. If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who held the highest YES self-position on the previous round (including buy-in, if it happens to be this round)."

I assume that is a win for this market too but that too might appear to be tie. then you might look at

"I don't feel this needs adding to the description but you might want to know; in case of a tie in the UI, I'll do the following steps in order until I've got a set of 8 players:

  • I assume the positions in the UI are ordered top-to-bottom including fractional shares on each side, so I'll use that if possible and if the tie is only on one of the sides

  • (I don't intend to test or disprove that assumption, and tbh I'm also totally happy if it's sorted by earliest bet)

  • Then I'll try to break the tie by looking at the precise positions via the API 😔

  • Finally, if somehow the API says the two tied people fighting for the 8th hand with the same value in the UI and the highest ordering on their side each have exactly the same shares, I will stretch the seats to 9 players. This won't cause any adjustment to the number of players who advance in the later rounds

These are simply a failsafe for fairness. I don't expect (or want) to need to do them"

Other possible ties: board hand, player have same cards of different suits acting as decider after same pair/two pair/three of a kind etc

@ChristopherRandles mostly just meant in the event of identical ranked hands at the end

@brubsby I know this question isn't on my market, but then yes, the wins will split just like in poker

I am not sure how much to bet to get though to the flop. Perhaps we should have market to estimate how much will 6th person spend/size of position? Probably need to know how that market is going to work before setting that up if people are interested.

@ChristopherRandles yeah I was hoping Manifold would have an easier way to see positions in these types of markets. maybe it makes sense to switch to simply looking at total committed mana

@Stralor committed mana maybe sounds good, certainly not by percent yes though, since that would enable people to force fold each other, although committed mana is also not visible. perhaps a website/addon that uses the api would be useful for tallying up self yes positions

@Stralor Total committed mana being amount spent on yes on oneself minus amount spent on no on oneself?

Or does this cancel differing amounts i.e. spend 10 on yes on self at 10% for a payout of 100 then bet 90 on no at 10% for a payout of 100 these cancel so 10mana on yes cancels 90 mana on no at this 10%age but it is different at different %.

Maybe just banning everyone from betting no on self or/by saying it = automatically considered to be a fold (at least from time of change)?

@ChristopherRandles shares yes and no held at the same time pay out 1/num choices i believe

@ChristopherRandles FYI (I'm sure it's clear, but just in case): this market we're talking on here is a meta market and doesn't affect which hands advance

I can't bet here either but I'm glad to see the meta market!

@Stralor screw it, I'm adding minimal NO limit orders (1 mana at 99%) to all players so you can get some trader bonuses :)

@Stralor Haha thanks!