WE'RE HERE
THE RIVER
King of Spades, Ten of Diamonds, Three of Spades, Eight of Clubs, + Seven of Clubs
Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they're not given a hand. If y'all love it, we'll do more hands. Here's how it works:
We had a buy-in market where the hand's players were chosen. Here's who remains!
Players are welcome to share their hands, or bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the markets, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet on their opponents! (Such bets have no bearing on if their hand continues)
This is the LAST ROUND OF BETTING. Players need to have a YES self-position of at least 50 to not fold.
If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who held the highest YES self-position on the previous round.
And as a bonus for this first trial run, I'm awarding 100 mana to the winner. Congrats to them!
As I know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor. My house cut is simply the (hopefully ample) trader bonuses on any markets I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.
Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group for visibility.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ105 | |
| 2 | Ṁ26 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 |
Kongo's hand is Queen of Spades and Five of Hearts
Christopher's hand is King of Hearts and Five of Diamonds
@ChristopherRandles wins with a pair of Kings.
Both of us have spent 50 Mana for a position of more than that. Unless we sell, we are both in.
If either of us raises, the other does not appear to have to follow that. May as well stay in for chance of 100 mana. We can lay off elsewhere or even here if we don't think we are going to win. So it isn't necessarily costly to bluff and be called. This is a strange version of poker. But will this mean fairly average hands will come to the last two? Or will it still be likely to be two of the better hands because more motivation to get through? I suspect the latter, but who knows with people forgetting deadlines etc..
@ChristopherRandles hmm, yeah I've wondered about this. might make sense to adjust how we do it in the future. There are still incentives to bluff at this point (like a bait & switch, though any bidding war is capped, as you've pointed out), but it's an open question as to how this shakes out in the end. Definitely curious to hear everyone's thoughts once it's done.
Remember, you need to have a position of 50 this round to see each other's hands (and possibly win)! @ChristopherRandles @KongoLandwalker
@KongoLandwalker Maybe one of us wants to place a large bet at last second? (prevents other getting good odds as a result)
@ChristopherRandles If there is no fold risk, I see no reason to wait for the last moment to drop a huge bet.