Will any current ACC member schools decide to leave the conference by September 2024?

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resolved Sep 2

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There are 15 current members as of Sept 1 2023:

FSU, Clemson, and UNC have expressed interest in possibly leaving the conference before the current TV deal ends (expiring in 2036). If any of these schools announce plans to leave the ACC before the beginning of the next academic/athletic year (we are using September 1, 2024), this market will resolve yes. No, otherwise.
Clarification: "Announce plans" means they have come to an agreement with the ACC to leave and pay the exit fee or some other agreement. Filing a lawsuit they could lose doesn't count. But they do not have to actually leave by September 1, they can just announce by then.

Stanford, Cal, and SMU are not yet members so they will not count for this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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This seems extremely unlikely to happen, there's an August 15 deadline for leaving the following academic year.

To be clear, the current lawsuits that FSU and Clemons are undertaking will not be counted as plans to leave since it's unclear if they can win the lawsuits. But if they do win the lawsuits (and the right to leave) and then announce they are leaving before September 1, this would resolve YES.

Alright now this may be correctly priced

It's not my official policy not to trade, but for now I'm not trading. But I would guess this market is WAAAY too high. If Clemson/FSU want to leave, the later they do it, the less money they lose. And if they aren't planning to leave until 2028, I doubt they would announce plans to leave before September 2024. But that's just me.

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