Will Moscow be hit by another drone by the end of the week?
257
454
แน€2K
resolved Aug 6
Resolved
NO

For this to be true, I will await for the BBC news to report that another building has been hit by a(n explosive) drone.

EDIT 02/08: By 'another building', I in fact meant any building in Moscow, which could be the same skyscraper yet again.

EDIT 05/08: The week ends 12am Monday 07th Moscow time.

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bought แน€2,097 of NO

the clock strikes midnight with nothing (i think).

bought แน€20 of YES

'Drone downed near Moscow'

Moscow's mayor says a hostile drone was downed en route to the city. Around 11:00am local time, the drone is said to have flown towards Moscow and was shot down by air defences. According to the defence ministry, the drone was downed in Podolski district, south of the capital.

Nothing has been said about possible damage caused by the downed drone. However, traffic to and from Vnukovo International Airport has been shut down "for reasons beyond our control".

predicted NO

@uair01 I've seen a number of reports on this. Ukraine is trying but Russia has stepped up its defenses. I don't think this will resolve yes

predicted YES

@uair01 Probably this is the source of the above news:

https://t.co/5OyAA87UlZ

predicted YES

@SebWilkes I agree, but on the off chance the yield will be good.

I still have no good betting strategy, just learning by trial and error.

The German V1 rockets were easy to shoot down. This looks similar.

predicted NO

@uair01 Oh yeah, it's a very cheap yes but imo a week wasn't long enough to see this happen. (Poisson statistics from now on)

predicted NO

gonna assume the spike was from the burning lambo ๐Ÿ˜‚

predicted YES

@ItzNetwork Your assumption is more or less correct ๐Ÿ˜›

Does the week end on Saturday night or Sunday night?

predicted YES

@figo good point! Updated description

predicted NO

I'm surprised by this market being as high as 34%. Base rates are much lower.

As per the description, a third drone hitting the same building will not count towards a YES resolution?

predicted YES

@Duncn I think it would, because it would be another drone that successfully hits Moscow? I just checked this morning, and the BBC has not released any more news about (successful) drone strikes in Moscow. Only something like this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66374032

bought แน€50 of YES

At the time of posting, two drone strikes had been reported?

predicted YES

@Duncn Yeah