What will Ernie run in the mile?
Basic
8
Ṁ1841resolved Apr 6
100%59%
Between 7:00.00 and 7:59.99
0.2%
Under 7:00.00
29%
Between 8:00 and 8:59.99
10%
At least 9:00:00.00
1.8%Other
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Okay the race is scheduled, Hillsborough high school track, San Mateo, CA April 6th 2024. Open to the public.
Followed by refreshments and lunch at my house nearby.
We need details on how the pacing, warmup etc will be.
My recent fitness: ~4x/week 1-2 hours pickleball, sometimes hiking etc. No running. Lifetime best timed mile might have been 8:05 or so? Although I never trained or tested it.
But, I never had Will training or pacing me.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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Learn more.1.00
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