What will Ernie run in the mile?
Basic
8
Ṁ1841
resolved Apr 6
100%59%
Between 7:00.00 and 7:59.99
0.2%
Under 7:00.00
29%
Between 8:00 and 8:59.99
10%
At least 9:00:00.00
1.8%Other

@Ernie will be timed in the one mile, paced by @wglane. What will he run?

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ133
2Ṁ83
3Ṁ66
4Ṁ11
5Ṁ1


Sort by:
9mo

bought Ṁ100 YES9mo

Ernie ran a 7:14 mile, measured on a track at 1609m.

bought Ṁ10 YES9mo

Let's go!

9mo

@traders the race is on for tomorrow at 11am, weather is good, predicted temp:54F

9mo

@traders if you'd like to come, Will can pace you if you want to set a PR

bought Ṁ10 YES9mo

9mo

@wglane not so easy though

9mo

Okay the race is scheduled, Hillsborough high school track, San Mateo, CA April 6th 2024. Open to the public.

Followed by refreshments and lunch at my house nearby.

10mo

We need details on how the pacing, warmup etc will be.

My recent fitness: ~4x/week 1-2 hours pickleball, sometimes hiking etc. No running. Lifetime best timed mile might have been 8:05 or so? Although I never trained or tested it.

But, I never had Will training or pacing me.

bought Ṁ10 YES10mo

@Ernie Will you be training before your official run? How much will you train?

10mo

@dadadadaffy No training, I think I'll just go meet will at the track one day

10mo

@dadadadaffy That said I did just listen to a 2 hour Peter Attia podcast which was inspiring

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules