Resolution criteria

As of February 3, 2026, Avatar: Fire and Ash has grossed $1.415 billion worldwide. The market resolves based on the film's final worldwide box office total by the end of February 2026, as reported by Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1757678/) or other major box office tracking sources. The resolution will use the worldwide gross figure combining domestic (US/Canada) and international earnings.

Background

Avatar: Fire and Ash was released in the United States on December 19, 2025. Premium formats such as Imax and 3D represented 66% of total grosses, with Imax alone delivering $43.6 million globally. In its second weekend, the film retained the top spot with $63.1 million (29% decline), and in its third weekend topped the box office with $41.4 million (34% decline). The film has demonstrated strong international performance, particularly in China and other key markets.

Considerations

Disney spent a massive $350 million to produce and roughly $150 million to promote the film, making the final box office total critical for franchise viability. Avatar 4 is set for December 21, 2029, and Avatar 5 should wrap the five-part saga on December 19, 2031, with production dependent on Fire and Ash's performance.