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MANIFOLD
Will two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030?
3
แน€100แน€50
2029
60%
chance

This description was generated by AI.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030, a bill is introduced in the United States Senate that meets all of the following conditions:

  1. It is formally cosponsored by at least two Democratic Senators and at least two Republican Senators.

  2. The text of the bill explicitly mentions "widespread job loss" (or a grammatically equivalent phrase clearly referring to the phenomenon of broad-based unemployment) resulting from artificial intelligence.

The market will resolve to NO if no such bill is introduced and cosponsored by January 1, 2030.

Background

As artificial intelligence capabilities advance, policymakers have increasingly turned their attention to the potential economic impacts of the technology. Concerns regarding automation, labor market displacement, and the necessity of workforce transition programs have become subjects of bipartisan interest in Washington. While several AI-related legislative proposals have been introduced in the Senate, specific language linking AI to "widespread job loss" serves as a benchmark for how seriously Congress is treating the prospect of structural economic disruption in formal legislation.

Market context
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