Will the median Brier score for binary-resolved markets resolved in June be below 0.125?
Resolved
YES
Jul 1
M$234 bet
This will resolve based on the calculations run on this page: https://wasabipesto.com/jupyter/manifold This number is calculated only on binary markets resolved to YES or NO. It uses the formula described here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score As of 6/10 the 1-month median is 0.1277. This market resolves YES if the score is below 0.125 when the stats are generated on 7/1. If a significant change is made to the calculation, such as including markets resolved to MKT, this market resolves N/A.
wasabipesto
wasabipesto is betting YES at 68%
Resolved at 0.1078(!)
0
wasabipesto
We're down to 0.1206 today!
0