Will the median Brier score for binary-resolved markets resolved in June be below 0.125?

3

152Ṁ234

resolved Jul 1

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This will resolve based on the calculations run on this page: https://wasabipesto.com/jupyter/manifold This number is calculated only on binary markets resolved to YES or NO. It uses the formula described here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score As of 6/10 the 1-month median is 0.1277. This market resolves YES if the score is below 0.125 when the stats are generated on 7/1. If a significant change is made to the calculation, such as including markets resolved to MKT, this market resolves N/A.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ95
2		Ṁ7

Sort by:

predictedYES

Resolved at 0.1078(!)

We're down to 0.1206 today!

People are also trading

Will this market resolve below 50%?

Will any of these "should-be-0%" market resolve Yes?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024

Will the number of unresolved markets that have been closed for more than a month be less than 100 before February?

Will this market resolve below 50% probability

Related questions

Will this market resolve below 50%?

Will any of these "should-be-0%" market resolve Yes?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024

Will the number of unresolved markets that have been closed for more than a month be less than 100 before February?

Will this market resolve below 50% probability

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules