One would probably do this by analyzing the source code to bots like this one[0] and creating a market that causes them to react in predictable but stupid ways, thus siphoning off their mana reserves. At least one bot must fall for such a market and lose at least $20 for this to resolve YES.
See also [1].
[0] https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/market-maker
[1] https://manifold.markets/JamesBot/will-another-manifold-user-create-o
1,000
3.00https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-any-bots-lose-money-on-this-ma update - @Botlab only lost m1, the other bots made a profit.
I think RyanBot is currently on track to lose mana on https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-any-bots-lose-money-on-this-ma because it bet m118 on YES at 83% and the market is on track to resolve to 50%.
@wasabipesto If you're planning to resolve this based on the success or failure of such a market, what is your plan for addressing the fact that this market's end date is before Martin's?
@MichaelWheatley My gut reaction is that Martin's market was created while mine was open, so it's eligible. I was expecting such markets to immediately capture mana and resolve, so I wasn't planning on having to wait. My plan for now is to let this market close tomorrow, and resolve it after Martin resolves theirs. Let me know if you have any objections.
@wasabipesto Along those lines, if I want to be extra sure of getting a payout on your market here, can I make a bot-bamboozler market in the next 14 hours, and figure out the details of how to make it pay out at my leisure?
Having seen some of the bots here in action, I think a market such as you describe wouldn't be too hard to pull off.
@MichaelWheatley In the spirit of fairness I would count a market created before this market closes (even if the resolution criteria is undetermined) as long as the purpose is clear. The longest I'll wait to resolve this market is one month after close, if your market hasn't resolved by then it'll be ineligible.
@wasabipesto Oh, interesting. I wonder who else expected my bot trap market to close early and whether closing it now would be net positive or negative for my reputation as a market creator.
@MartinRandall My read of your title and description is that either interpretation seems valid. No one asked for clarification as far as I can tell.
@wasabipesto Technically your resolution criteria are based on intent, not outcome. Which makes it tricky to resolve!
@MartinRandall Yeah, I probably should have been a bit clearer with the market title. Feels too late to change it now, but the actual criteria haven't changed.
This market looks like it would work: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-any-bots-lose-money-on-this-ma
@wasabipesto In expectation yes, but I'm curious how it'll go, maybe all the bot operators will notice and add an exception, and it will just take mana from gurkenglas.
@MattP Bot can react also to for example order book: setup order book triggering specific behaviour, wait for bot order and then extract mana. Market description could be "I will resolve it however I feel like"