Will tpot bluesky arc end by the end of June 2023?

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resolved Jul 2

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Currently there's a lot of tpot folks on bluesky and hyping it up, will it fizzle out by the end of June?

It will probably be obvious one way or the other. If not then I'll choose, I guess if I have to (🙄) then by something like this algorithm: choose some random big tpot accounts using hive.one that were ever using bluesky, and estimate if their number of recent post and replies on bluesky is <30% of that on twitter. If yes for >70% of sampled accounts then the bluesky arc ended.

Because of the lack of a really nice objective procedure, I will not trade in this market.

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post-resolution notes:

seems I overestimated how clear it would be since the market ended up at ~50% when basically the result should be known by close time

you really need to make YES the "positive" side whatever that means or it turns out it will be confusing

I checked and accounts that I know are still active. I'm leaning NO but if someone wants I can do the promised procedure

predicted YES

@warty I have the biggest Yes position and I agree on No. Especially after the rate limiting drama from last night, seems like bluesky tpot is so back.

predicted NO

@palcu we're so back

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Vibecamp posting is alive and well on bsky so

@jgyou you bought the wrong direction. I guess not great titling from me

predicted NO

@warty yep but switched quickly after. happened to Alex too, I wonder why though, it is a straightforward statement! Mapping between a negative statement and a positive outcome probably.