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Huh, I guess this only works out if the underlying-market authors holds a large YES position in the derivative market. This should push the underlying market closer to the actual probability by eliminating counterparty risk - here the counterparty risk just gets mirrored to the derivative market (both are around 93%).
E.g., if @CRESTCLUB were to buy YES for 10000 here, I would be able to buy NO here and YES in the earth-sun-market to push it closer to 100%
@lu oh, that makes sense. I'd like to get a better understanding about how these mechanisms work on the gear-level. Could you point me to some reading?
@IsaacKing I think there is some mechanism that uses the improper resolution derivative markets? Like you can buy shares here and there and hedge? but I'm not sure, I'm new to this stuff, perhaps someone knows better
If the market about the Earth continuing to revolve around the sun were to resolve to a "no" now, I would judge it to be resolved improperly.
If it were a "yes", I would have a problem because we need to wait until the end of the day to actually see that the Earth didn't stop, right? Only I don't know which time zone CRESTCLUB's in. It looks like the question's deadline is a midnight GMT, so maybe we'll use that as a conventional midnight. So I'd still consider that as an improper resolution.
@IsaacKing Wait, maybe I misunderstood your question. You're asking how the derivative market should resolve if the original market resolves right now, or something else?
