Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is at least 5.00% on December 31, 2025. If the upper bound is below 5.00% on that date, the market will resolve to "No." The official source for this information is the Federal Reserve's announcements and publications.

Background:

As of April 2025, the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is set within a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. (axios.com) Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the need for more data before making further adjustments. (reuters.com) Market participants have been anticipating potential rate cuts starting in June 2025, with expectations of a total reduction of one percentage point by the end of the year. (reuters.com)

Considerations:

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, economic indicators such as inflation rates and employment data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials, as these factors will influence future decisions regarding the federal funds rate.