This market will resolve to 'Yes' if credible reports confirm that Russia launched an IRBM after the creation of this market and before May 15, 2025, 00:00 GMT+3. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.

• An IRBM is an Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile, such as the "Oreshnik" missile previously employed in November 2024.

• The IRBM must target Ukraine rather than be part of a test launch. If the launch fails or the IRBM is somehow shot down, I will use my judgement to decide if Ukraine was targeted.

• The credibility of the reports will be up to my judgement. (I am reluctant to give examples since multiple authors even in the Financial Times have misidentified the "Oreshnik" as an ICBM, but as a heuristic: VCHK-OGPU no, NYT borderline, CSIS yes.)

• I may let several days pass until I am confident that an IRBM has not been misidentified as an ICBM or vice versa.

• Context: Novaya Gazeta Evropa.

I will not bet on this market.