Not a Coin Flip: Will the Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Receive an Even or Odd Number of Electoral Votes?
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16
Ṁ10k
resolved Dec 18
100%98.1%
Even
1.9%
Odd

Please don’t interpret this as a coin flip market

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bought Ṁ3,671 YES

@vibhav The Electoral College voted now, so I think this can resolve.

How does this resolve if there are faithless electors?

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@traders Election day is today! Place your final bets!

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Exactly one more week until election day! Place your bets now!

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debate bump

You can't declare a coin flip not to be a coin flip.

Some election outcomes are more likely to occur than others.

True, but I somewhat doubt that for a couple dozen mana people have run Monte Carlo simulations or other methods to estimate the probability of the parity of each scenario including faithless electors.

Oki oki, feel free to bet back to 50%, I have limit order for you 😇

Nah - I haven't run the numbers either 😂 I just guess it's really noisy to have such a big deviation from even odds, but I'm good with betting on it.

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