Will Manifold have real money markets with at least 1% of the active liquidity of Polymarket by end of 2025?
10
100Ṁ6162026
2%
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Resolves YES if monthly Manifold real money liquidity is at least 1% that of Polymarket.
Resolved N/A if I’m not able to find liquidity numbers for one or both sites.
The current estimates I would use are:
https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/prediction-markets-and-betting: $110m in “open interest”
https://manifold.markets/stats: $40k in “investment”
I’m open to changing which metrics are used, in case the above ones aren’t adequately apples-to-apples.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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