Background

President Trump has announced tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China as part of his economic and border security strategy. These include:

• 25% tariff on nearly all goods from Canada and Mexico (with Canadian energy products facing a 10% tariff)

• An additional 10% tariff on imports from China, potentially doubling some existing tariffs to 20%

These tariffs are primarily aimed at addressing border security issues and the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the United States.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if President Trump officially announces or implements a reversal of the tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China before the end of his term.

The market will resolve as NO if:

• Trump maintains the tariffs throughout his term

• Trump modifies the tariffs but does not fully reverse them

• Trump reverses tariffs for only one or two of the countries but not all three

For clarity, a "reversal" means a complete removal of the specific tariffs that were imposed, returning to pre-tariff levels. Partial reductions or temporary suspensions will not count as a reversal.

Considerations

Tariff policies can be influenced by diplomatic negotiations, economic impacts, or changes in border security situations. Any reversal would likely depend on significant concessions from the affected countries regarding Trump's stated concerns about border security and drug trafficking.

• Update 2025-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

  • New Deadline: The reversal of tariffs must be officially announced or implemented by the end of this month, rather than by the end of President Trump's term.

  • Consistency with Title: This update aligns the resolution criteria with the market title and the stated resolution date.