Will Elon Musk / X Corp follow through on their bot purge & legal action promise?
Basic
10
Ṁ344
Dec 31
49%
No reduction in bot activity + no legal action
46%
Verified bots + NUDES IN BIO both reduced significantly & no legal action
43%
Verified bots + NUDES IN BIO both reduced significantly & legal action initiated
27%
Verified bots reduced but NUDES IN BIO bots still active & no legal action
20%
Verified bots reduced but NUDES IN BIO bots still active & legal action initiated
17%
No reduction in both activity + legal action

Based on this: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1775900800520262071

Lots of ways for this to go so I've added a few options based on probable outcomes (you never know with this man) - please feel free to make any suggestions and I'll get them added on.

We shall give him a deadline of this year to either make or break our magic internet point balance.

Any questions, please ask and happy betting! May the odds forever be in your favour.

  • Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria:

    • No reduction in bot activity

    • No legal action (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Outcomes as I see them

- No legal action taken
- Bots still exist and based on the purges so far - not even significantly reduced. "Nudes in Bio" aka "Dating CPA Bots" created at the time of this post are still active and new accounts with the same MO are still signing up. Verified bots (Mostly GPT bots) are still just as high if not worse

Based on the above - I'm planning to resolve to: No reduction in bot activity + no legal action

Any disagreements?

Whether NUDES IN BIO bots are “significantly reduced” or “still active” will be hard to determine when you resolve. Not really measured anywhere. If half are removed, they would be both significantly reduced” and “still active”.

@CharlieBauer Good point - I will the update the wording so there's actually a threshold and some way to measure it

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules