Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?
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Elon Musk has stated that X Corp (formerly Twitter) will be filing a "thermonuclear lawsuit" against Media Matters on Monday, November 20th.

This question will resolve as follows:

  • If the parties settle out of court with Media Matters making a substantial payment (>$1 million) to Musk/X, it resolves as YES.

    • In the case of a smaller settlement (e.g. retraction/apology without payment), I will resolve as N/A; for the purposes of this question, I don't consider Media Matters caving to the threat of a lawsuit to count as Musk/X prevailing in court, unless it comes with a substantial settlement.

  • If there is no lawsuit filed by 2024-02-29, or if Musk/X clearly state before that date that they will not be filing a suit, it resolves as NO.

  • If the case goes to court, the question resolves at the close of the lawsuit, based on who wins.

I will not participate in this market.

Updated 2023-12-12: Pushed out the close date to EOY 2024 since the lawsuit has actually been filed now.

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predicts NO

I'm assuming if they settle out of court for an undisclosed amount this will resolve N/A?

@Marnix In that case I’d probably wait a while to see if there are any leaks or indications about what the settlement was. If there is no information at all, then I suppose I would have to resolve N/A.

Well, better chance to win it now that he's at least filed it....

Gosh, most of this lawsuit is needless posturing. The original report makes ZERO claims about what a “real” user experiences and simply states that they found the ads.

And all the typo underlines (lol) really sell that “thermonuclear” lawsuit they’re prepping.

Yeah, I don't really see a case here.

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