Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?
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Elon Musk has stated that X Corp (formerly Twitter) will be filing a "thermonuclear lawsuit" against Media Matters on Monday, November 20th.

This question will resolve as follows:

  • If the parties settle out of court with Media Matters making a substantial payment (>$1 million) to Musk/X, it resolves as YES.

    • In the case of a smaller settlement (e.g. retraction/apology without payment), I will resolve as N/A; for the purposes of this question, I don't consider Media Matters caving to the threat of a lawsuit to count as Musk/X prevailing in court, unless it comes with a substantial settlement.

  • If there is no lawsuit filed by 2024-02-29, or if Musk/X clearly state before that date that they will not be filing a suit, it resolves as NO.

  • If the case goes to court, the question resolves at the close of the lawsuit, based on who wins.

I will not participate in this market.

Updated 2023-12-12: Pushed out the close date to EOY 2024 since the lawsuit has actually been filed now.

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predicts NO

I'm assuming if they settle out of court for an undisclosed amount this will resolve N/A?

@Marnix In that case I’d probably wait a while to see if there are any leaks or indications about what the settlement was. If there is no information at all, then I suppose I would have to resolve N/A.

Legal Eagle is betting no: Elon Musk's Thermonuclear Defamation Suit Is a Dud (youtube.com)

Well, better chance to win it now that he's at least filed it....

Gosh, most of this lawsuit is needless posturing. The original report makes ZERO claims about what a “real” user experiences and simply states that they found the ads.

And all the typo underlines (lol) really sell that “thermonuclear” lawsuit they’re prepping.

Yeah, I don't really see a case here.

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