ussgordoncaptain

resolved Jan 27

Drug Policy Sports

Will /r/NattyorJuice think Shohei Ohtani is taking steroids

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolution mechanism: I will make a reddit post on /r/NattyorJuice on Shohei Ohtani, if the most upvoted comment says he is taking steroids this will resolve YES if the most upvoted comment say he isn't this will resolve no.

An example comment that will resolve yes is "Physique achivable natty but he be juicing"

An example of a no is "he be strong but MLB testing to tight"

For the purposes of this, EPO, HGH and TRT all count as "steroids" it's just that more people think of steroid as teh generic term for PEDs

Close date updated to 2023-01-26 3:59 pm

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Rougee	Ṁ162
2	Nathan Huband	Ṁ30
3	ussgordoncaptain	Ṁ28
4	Rajat Rai	Ṁ18
5	mzal	Ṁ9

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bought Ṁ80 of YES

Closer than I thought it would be

predicted YES at 80%

@RogerYang Reddit seems to do some sort of vote fuzzing, anyone know how to get a more accurate number?

ussgordoncaptain

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@RogerYang Sorting by top grants the actual top, but it fails to get an accurate vote count

Manifold DreamBot

Manifold in the wild: Well Tested Or Drowning In Test Shohei Ohtani

You think we don't know that you are trying to test r/nattyorjuice's accuracy from some strange betting website so you can make easy play money? - https://manifold.markets/ussgordoncaptain/will-rnattyorjuice-think-shohei-oht You should have at least tried to bribe me first, like most fake natties.

predicted YES at 80%

Updated close date? Will that also be the resolution date then

ussgordoncaptain

predicted YES at 80%

@RogerYang yeah, I forgot to make the reddit post yesterday

ussgordoncaptain

predicted YES at 81%

https://www.reddit.com/r/nattyorjuice/comments/10ldh67/well_tested_or_drowning_in_test_shohei_ohtani/

The reddit post

What photo will you use?

@ussgordoncaptain I think this strongly affects the resolution

ussgordoncaptain

predicted YES at 81%

@Yoav God I can't find shirtless picks of him if you find one from 2022 I'll use that

@ussgordoncaptain Best photo I could find https://www.pinterest.com/pin/754775218808908676/

bought Ṁ160 YES from 85% to 90%

ussgordoncaptain

bought Ṁ40 YES from 83% to 85%

ussgordoncaptain

bought Ṁ30 YES from 81% to 83%

ussgordoncaptain

bought Ṁ20 YES from 80% to 81%

ussgordoncaptain

bought Ṁ10 YES at 80%

bought Ṁ80 YES from 73% to 80%

sold Ṁ37 YES from 77% to 73%

sold Ṁ146 YES from 85% to 77%

sold Ṁ419 YES from 92% to 85%

bought Ṁ130 YES from 89% to 92%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 91% to 89%

sold Ṁ8 NO from 90% to 91%

bought Ṁ120 YES from 86% to 90%

sold Ṁ266 YES from 92% to 86%

filled limit order Ṁ153/Ṁ300 YES at 85% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ5 NO from 91% to 92%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 91%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ55/Ṁ100 YES at 91% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ140 YES from 85% to 90%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ6 NO at 85% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 NO at 86% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 82% to 87%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 82% (cancelled)

ussgordoncaptain

bought Ṁ10 YES from 81% to 82%

sold Ṁ2 NO from 80% to 81%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 70% to 80%

bought Ṁ30 YES from 65% to 70%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 71% to 65%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 74% to 71%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 81% to 74%

bought Ṁ30 YES from 78% to 81%

created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 60% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ50 YES at 65% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 65% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ250 YES at 65% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 77% to 78%

created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 65% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 77% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 YES from 74% to 77%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 74%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 78% (cancelled)

ussgordoncaptain

bought Ṁ15 YES from 75% to 77%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 75% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 74%

bought Ṁ60 YES from 69% to 78%

sold Ṁ19 YES from 72% to 69%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 72% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 50% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 30% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ60 YES from 59% to 73%