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Mistral Large 2 outperforms Llama 3.1 405b Instruct on Chatbot Arena on August 12th?
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Ṁ79kresolved Aug 13
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Mistral Large 2 reportedly outperforms on Arena Hard as well as MT Bench:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Faa_mSvCgUX.png?alt=media&token=438d86cb-d74a-4176-a81c-77658bd0eba7)
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FtgDYq3LW2Z.png?alt=media&token=507525d3-c436-43b4-9571-219d75b52d70)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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Mistral Large 2 is now on the leaderboard with 1248, 15 points short of 405B
nope! haven't been following it but surprised by how low it is.
It catches up quite a bit on math, coding but still doesn't pass
Does this measure the difference at a single point, or or once per day, continuously? I.e. "ever outperform before" vs "outperform on"
I think the right choice for markets like this is "outperform on", because otherwise they'll move up and down with noise and that biases the market towards yes vs what you want to ask which is 'is it better'
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