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MANIFOLD
How will I rate Vilenkin 1989? (+free lottery)
8
Ṁ10kṀ445
resolved Sep 24
Resolved as
35%

Resolution

This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.

Vilenkin (1989) "The Interpretation of the Wave Function of the Universe"

Free Lottery

After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time.

For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader.

Past winners

@PaperBoy 100Ṁ

@hogshedges 100Ṁ

@Pancarre 300Ṁ

@wolf 400Ṁ

@Chumchulum 200Ṁ

@KarlWang 4000Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ

@2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ

@jbm 300Ṁ

@AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ

@Primer 300Ṁ

@Brierbr 300Ṁ

@DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@Chimpy 300Ṁ

@Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@dawxgBot 300Ṁ

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ0
2Ṁ0
3Ṁ0
4Ṁ0
Sort by:

Soundness: 10

Ingenuity: 30-70

Presentation: 60

Significance: 20

Overall (average): 35

--- RESOLUTION PROOF ---

Market        : /ttoe/how-will-i-rate-vilenkin-1988b-free

Draw Source   : closeTime (1789747080000 ms)

Draw Time     : 2026-09-18 15:58:00 UTC (2026-09-18 11:58:00 EDT ET)

Target Range  : 1 to 100

NIST API Link : https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1789747080000

Pulse Index   : 1946992

Pulse Time    : 2026-09-18T15:58:00.000Z

Output Hex    : 2FA3BF8FE5A610B507AB7066F22B8B1EFBA86BD17215B9478B422EC09157872CC111B3E0C2F4F95F91A0148D0DE292317F9B8B96868BEB74D8DE64D85F713BC3

Formula       : (Decimal_Value % 100) + 1

Decimal_Value : 2495090494183411580142047378535581344104341968662068408336958499342857879816911720964307875064377552973787741991851489637891889007622157981363227845540803

FINAL RESULT  : 4

Verify        : open the NIST API Link above,

               compute int(outputValue, 16) % 100 + 1

4th unique trader (ranked by first settled bet): @Handmadefilms (https://manifold.markets/Handmadefilms)

@ttoe NOOOOOO OFF BY ONEEEE