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MANIFOLD
How will I rate Vilenkin 1988? (+free lottery)
5
Ṁ10kṀ9
resolved Sep 20
Resolved as
50%

Resolution

This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.

Vilenkin (1988) "Quantum cosmology and the initial state of the Universe”

Free Lottery

After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time.

For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader.

Past winners

@PaperBoy 100Ṁ

@hogshedges 100Ṁ

@Pancarre 300Ṁ

@wolf 400Ṁ

@Chumchulum 200Ṁ

@KarlWang 4000Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ

@2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ

@jbm 300Ṁ

@AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ

@Primer 300Ṁ

@Brierbr 300Ṁ

@DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@Chimpy 300Ṁ

@Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@dawxgBot 300Ṁ

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ0
2Ṁ0
3Ṁ0
4Ṁ0
Sort by:

Soundness: 40

Ingenuity: 60

Presentation: 60

Significance: 40

Overall (average): 50

--- RESOLUTION PROOF ---

Market        : /ttoe/how-will-i-rate-vilenkin-1988-free

Draw Source   : closeTime (1789615860000 ms)

Draw Time     : 2026-09-17 03:31:00 UTC (2026-09-16 23:31:00 EDT ET)

Target Range  : 1 to 100

NIST API Link : https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1789615860000

Pulse Index   : 1944805

Pulse Time    : 2026-09-17T03:31:00.000Z

Output Hex    : 50086D9D68E0B3858FE88D0F513D7731F17EF34C49660E793C18153F6365490160C9532FF13A22D576259E8AF7E3CAFE0A8B5C5C11DD300BF84A0809AB48AA35

Formula       : (Decimal_Value % 100) + 1

Decimal_Value : 4191664274075993872901943084320076169794773655751304061565346831926988041227612303743686008067578498083248416628445733567771693846841395910178676960438837

FINAL RESULT  : 38

Verify        : open the NIST API Link above,

               compute int(outputValue, 16) % 100 + 1

No 38th unique trader: only 5 unique bettor(s) on this market.