Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, during Donald Trump's current term as President of the United States, the U.S. formally reinstates the gold standard, meaning the U.S. dollar becomes directly convertible to a fixed amount of gold. The market will resolve to "No" if this does not occur by the end of his term.

Background:

The gold standard is a monetary system where a country's currency has a value directly linked to gold. The United States abandoned the gold standard in 1971 under President Richard Nixon. Since then, the U.S. dollar has been a fiat currency, not backed by a physical commodity.

President Trump has previously expressed interest in the gold standard. In a 2015 interview, he stated, "Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but boy, would it be wonderful." Additionally, some of his advisors, such as Judy Shelton and John Allison, have shown support for the idea. (investingnews.com)

However, returning to the gold standard presents significant challenges. The U.S. holds approximately 261.5 million troy ounces of gold, valued at around $489 billion. In contrast, the total U.S. money supply exceeds $20 trillion, necessitating about 272,430 metric tons of gold at current market prices, which is more than the total global gold stocks. (theinvestmentwhisperer.com)

Economists also caution that reinstating the gold standard could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to respond to economic crises and might lead to economic instability. Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that stabilizing the dollar price of gold could negatively impact objectives like maximum employment and stable prices. (investingnews.com)

As of April 2025, there have been no official moves by the Trump administration to reinstate the gold standard.