Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if stablecoins are determined to be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and NO if they are determined to be distinct from CBDCs. Resolution will be based on authoritative definitions from major financial regulators and central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank for International Settlements. The market creator will resolve based on the consensus definition of these institutions as of the resolution date.

Background

Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain a steady value, usually by being pegged to a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar, and unlike CBDCs, they aren't issued by governments. CBDCs are issued and backed by a central bank, giving consumers guaranteed protection. CBDC is issued by central banks, meaning that they are a direct claim on the central bank, while stablecoin is issued by private entity. Stablecoins are created by private companies or decentralized protocols, and anyone with a crypto wallet can use them; no bank account or permission is required.

Considerations

The distinction between stablecoins and CBDCs reflects fundamentally different governance models. CBDCs are created, controlled, and regulated by the central bank of a country or region that releases the CBDC. Stablecoins are usually governed by private companies such as Circle or Binance. While both are digital currencies, CBDCs are built for top-down control, while stablecoins lean toward bottom-up access, and they could technically coexist but serve different interests and reflect different philosophies about how money should move in a digital world.