Will any central bank buy a cryptocurrency (CBDC doesn't count) for their reserves by the end of 2030?
3
100Ṁ71
2030
75%
chance

Background

Central banks traditionally hold reserves in assets like gold, foreign currencies, and government securities to maintain financial stability and support monetary policy. As of now, no major central bank officially holds cryptocurrencies as part of their reserves.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if, by December 31, 2030, at least one central bank officially announces and confirms that they have purchased and are holding any decentralized cryptocurrency (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.) but not CBDC as part of their official reserves.

For resolution purposes:

  • The entity must be a recognized central bank of a sovereign nation

  • The cryptocurrency must be a decentralized cryptocurrency (not a CBDC or stablecoin issued by the central bank itself)

  • The purchase must be for official reserves, not for research, testing, or other purposes.

  • It cannot be pre-existing seized assets. They must be purchased for the purpose of funding the reserve.

  • The holding must be publicly confirmed by the central bank through official channels

  • Sovereign wealth funds or any government holdings not initiated by the central bank itself doesn't count.

  • Cryptocurrency bought by the central bank from another government entity counts.

  • The purchase must represent a meaningful allocation > $1M (not just a nominal amount for technical testing).

The market will resolve as NO if no central bank has officially added cryptocurrencies to their reserves by the end of 2030.

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