Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the price of gold reaches or exceeds $3,500 per troy ounce at any point before or on July 4, 2025. The market resolves NO if gold fails to reach this price by the end of July 4, 2025.

Resolution will be based on the LBMA Gold Price (formerly known as the London Gold Fix) or another widely recognized gold price benchmark such as COMEX gold futures or spot gold prices as reported by major financial data providers (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.).

Background

As of late March 2025, gold prices have reached record levels, with spot prices around $3,070 per troy ounce. Gold has shown strong momentum, with a 27% increase in 2024 and approximately 14% rise so far in 2025.

Several major financial institutions have made bullish predictions for gold:

• Bank of America has projected gold could reach $3,500, citing increased policy tensions and monetary tightening

• Citi suggested gold could hit $3,500 if economic slowdown concerns persist

• Goldman Sachs has set a more conservative target of $3,300 for 2025

Factors driving gold's rise include:

• Significant central bank purchasing to diversify reserves

• Ongoing geopolitical tensions

• Inflation concerns and currency volatility

• Increased demand for safe-haven assets during economic uncertainty