TL;DR You are betting on an outcome that this guy will be falling for another trap laid by the deep state of Thailand or not.
Image at 28 Feb 2008 Thaksin returns to Thailand | News | Al Jazeera
Backstory
Great summary about the current situation by Sir Swag https://youtu.be/jQqGQZpzAis?t=472
Thaksin Shinawatra is a former PM of Thailand in exile due to a coup d'etat by Royal Thai Army in 2006. Announced his return to his home country (again) before the Thailand general election of 2023, which end up being a sham, orchestrated by the conservatives and the junta. It is generally well-known by now that Thaksin had a deal with the conservatives that by allowing him to return home, he would use his party (Pheu Thai party) to prevent a left-wing reformist party (Move Forward Party) that won the recent election from taking power.
It's also well-known that this guy got fooled by the conservatives on his many attempts to return home prior (Thai Raksa Chart Party - Wikipedia).
Timeline
Around March: Thaksin says that he will return (again, after 18 times he said it publicly) to Thailand post-election, expecting that his party will win the election in a landslide. Ex-PM Thaksin vows to return to Thailand post-election, face jail time (kyodonews.net)
14 May: Thailand held a general election. The unofficial result shows that a left-wing reformist party, the Move Forward party, won the election. And, the Pheu Thai party come in second place with a 10% difference in the number of votes.
22 May: Move Forward Party creates a 7-party coalition to form the government after the announcement of the unofficial election result.
19 June: Election Commission of Thailand validate MPs election result.
4 July: Move Forward Party fails to get a Speaker of Parliament chair due to some conflict with the Pheu Thai party. End up appointing MP from the alleged nominee party of the Pheu Thai party to take the chair instead.
14 July: PM candidate from the Move Forward party, Pita Limjaroenrat, failed to secure enough votes. Pita fails to secure support (bangkokpost.com)
19 July: Opposition of the coalition performed a judicial coup, blocking Pita's bid from taking place for another round. Thailand elections: Parliament blocks Pita Limjaroenrat's bid to become prime minister | CNN
26 July: Thaksin announce that he's going to return on 10 August. Thaksin to return on Aug 10 (bangkokpost.com)
3 August: The Pheu Thai party abandoned the Move Forward party and dissolute the coalition with ongoing rumors that Thaksin return on 10 August might be postponed. Thai Party Backed by Thaksin to Unveil New Coalition Without Move Forward - Bloomberg, Thaksin likely to postpone his return to Thailand amid delay in government formation (nationthailand.com)
3 August: Thailand PM bid on 4 August is postponed until the constitutional court delivers the conclusion of the 19 July event. Thailand PM vote postponed as court reviews Pita petition - Nikkei Asia
Condition
It is a yes if there's a confirmation that Thaksin return to Thailand within 2023.
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